Europe risks a dangerous deterrence gap unless it urgently rethinks its nuclear posture, according to a major new report released today and to be presented at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) this weekend. Prof.dr. Michal Onderco, Erasmus University Rotterdam and member of European Nuclear Study Group (ENSG) contributed to the development of the report’s analysis and assessment. He co‑authored the final publication and participated in regular working meetings, supporting the drafting and review process.
In “Mind the Deterrence Gap: Assessing Europe’s Nuclear Options,” the European Nuclear Study Group warns that a shifting global nuclear order—intensified by nuclear threats from Moscow and mounting doubts in some capitals about the long-term reliability of US security guarantees—are compelling Europe to confront a strategic problem it can no longer afford to avoid.
The multinational team of leading defense and security experts assesses five concrete options mentioned in the political debate: continued reliance on US extended nuclear deterrence; strengthening the role of British and French nuclear forces in European deterrence; developing a common European deterrent; pursuing new, independent national nuclear deterrents; and investing in conventional deterrence without a nuclear component.
The report notes that there is no good option for Europe to assure deterrence with less US support. While the authors stop short of endorsing a single path forward, they underscore that failing to engage seriously with the trade-offs, constraints, and risks of various nuclear options now could leave Europe dangerously exposed in a rapidly deteriorating security landscape. European leaders must thus urgently weigh up the various options to avoid a deterrence gap. A debate long treated as politically untouchable has now become urgent and unavoidable.
“Europeans can no longer outsource their thinking about nuclear deterrence to the United States. The era in which Europe could afford strategic complacency has ended,” the authors write. “However uncomfortable the debate may be, the new security environment requires European policymakers to confront the role of nuclear weapons in the defense of the continent directly and without delay — and to invest the resources needed to do so competently. Thinking seriously about these questions today is the price of avoiding strategic failure tomorrow.”
The European Nuclear Study Group was established in 2024 as a joint initiative of the Munich Security Conference, the Centre for International Security at the Hertie School in Berlin, and the Institute of Political Science at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland.
Bibliographical information
Tobias Bunde, James W. Davis, Claudia Major, Janina Dill, Héloïse Fayet, Liviu Horovitz, Łukasz Kulesa, Andreas Lutsch, Michal Onderco, Jintro Pauly, Julian Wucherpfennig, “Mind the Deterrence Gap: Assessing Europe’s Nuclear Options. Report of the European Nuclear Study Group,” Munich/Berlin/St. Gallen: Munich Security Conference, Centre for International Security at the Hertie School, Institute of Political Science at the University of St. Gallen, February 2026, https://doi.org/10.47342/SNSE5421.
Recent publication by Michal Onderco
Europe's Nuclear Umbrella Contesting Nuclear Sharing Since 2010
Cambridge University Press, January 2026
- Professor
- More information
Press release copied from Munich Security Conference
Marjolein Kooistra, communication ESSB , + 31683676038, kooistra@essb.eur.nl
