In the final phase of election campaigns, there is increasing attention for polls, but what effect do they have? “The media cannot do without polls,” concludes media researcher Nel Ruigrok of ESHCC. In Trouw, she talks about her research into the impact of polls in the Dutch talk shows.
Ruigrok had the computer ‘identify’ how often the word ‘poll’ was used in September and October (up to Friday, October 24). It was mentioned 135 times on the show Eva, 121 times on RTL Tonight, 114 times on Pauw en De Wit, and 71 times on Nieuws van de Dag. At Café Kockelmann, polls were discussed 46 times. That may seem like a small number, but the talk show is only broadcast once a week, while the other programs are broadcast more frequently. In any case, it shows that philosophizing about polls, especially in the final phase of the campaign, has become an integral part of Dutch talk shows and news programs.
It's hardly about the content anymore
“Although it is emphasized that a single poll does not mean much, it is covered extensively and then a newsworthy fact is created,” says Ruigrok. Ruigrok and her fellow researchers Vaas de Wit and Nisanur Karadavut make a point with their research: the media are more careful when talking about polls, they are more cautious, but at the same time they cannot do without them and still try to distil news from a single poll. “The media pretend they have no influence, but in the meantime, it's hardly about the content anymore. It's about who will be the biggest, who can work with whom, and who will become prime minister.”
The consequences
Talk shows and polling agencies are responding to this. "There is now a lot of speculation on talk shows about who can form a majority in the Tweede Kamer with whom. Research shows that the effect of such news is that people start voting strategically. This can also lead to disappointment among voters and even a loss of confidence. In this way, the media are contributing to a strong focus on the major parties, while in our proportional electoral system, small parties can also play an important role in coalition formation," says Ruigrok.
Ban on polls in the final phase?
Two years ago, Trouw even suggested considering a ban on opinion polls in the last two weeks before the elections, following the example of other European member states. Political scientists are not necessarily in favour of this, but they do warn that polls can become too influential and detract from the content. How journalists deal with polls and report on them is particularly important. And: do journalists emphasize how many voters are still unsure about which party to vote for?
Nel Ruigrok conducted the research with Vaas de Wit and Nisanur Karadavut, in collaboration with the ombudsman for public broadcasters. Recently, they worked with NRC to investigate the political content of Dutch talk shows during election season, analysing the speaking time of guests and political leaders.
The project is made possible in part by the Stimuleringsfonds voor de Journalistiek en het Commissariaat voor de Media.
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