The recent Flemish arms export ban to Israel will have little economic impact on Israel, says Assistant Professor Julian Emami Namini of Erasmus School of Economics. Although the Belgian court ruled that all forms of arms exports to Israel must be halted, Emami Namini expects that the goods will simply be rerouted through other ports, such as Rotterdam or Hamburg.
Toothless sanction
‘The same goods still arrive in Israel via a different route,’ says Emami Namini. He calls the decision a classic example of sanctions that are primarily detrimental to the country imposing them. ‘For Israel, the consequences are merely symbolic, while the port of Antwerp will notice a decrease in goods flows.’
Emami Namini points out that the burden of proof for checking dual-use goods (products that can be used for both civilian and military purposes) is difficult. ‘Perhaps a coffee maker used by soldiers for coffee doesn't fall under this,’ he says with a wink. According to IMF figures, Belgian exports to Israel represent only 0.4% of total Belgian exports. Dual-use goods account for an estimated 2% of what Israel imports from Belgium.
The Flemish government is appealing the ruling, while legal proceedings concerning arms exports are also underway in the Netherlands, Germany, and France. In the Netherlands, the Belgian ruling is already being seen as a potential precedent for a case scheduled for September.
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Julian Emami Namini was recently interviewed by the Dutch newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad. Download the text from the article above (in Dutch). Emami Namini teaches International Economics in the second year of the bachelor's programme and the course International Trade and Trade Policy for master's students.
For more information, please contact Ronald de Groot, Media & Public Relations Officer at Erasmus School of Economics: rdegroot@ese.eur.nl, mobile: +31 6 53 641 846.
